The Blogosphere's Peak

December 14, 2006

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The Blogospheres Peak

Research firm Gartner has

"(Gartner's conclusion) assumes a static population of internet connected individuals. In 10 years, do you imagine there will be more people online?"

"Most of the connected population are yet to embrace the idea of participating online rather than just reading stuff. This is a major cultural change and will take a decade or two."

Ultimately, of course, the growth of the blogosphere will level off just as the growth of anything new peaks after most people who want one get one. I agree with each of the arguments posted to Micro Persuasion, but even if Gartner is right, so what? New blogs will continue to swell the ranks as non-bloggers decide they have something to talk about and opt for a blog as their channel of choice. Somebody not blogging today may take up a new hobby or embark on a new career and suddenly have a reason to blog. Also, any number of young people entering school or the workforce will take up blogging, as well, in whatever form it exists in the years ahead. No, the size of the blogosphere won't continue to double every few months, but that doesn't mean blogs are a fad on their way out. It simply means blogging has become a part of the landscape, just like telephones, televisions, and websites. The growth of all these tools peaked at some point, yet people still continue to acquire them at a healthy clip and their influence is unquestioned.

Shel Holtz is principal of a shel of my former self

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