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Will Kindle 2.0 Mirror iPod's Success?

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Rumor has it Amazon will unveil the second generation of its ebook Kindle at a press event next Monday. The device is expected to be thinner and cheaper, but still will lack certain functionalities the digital consuming public might expect. Beyond that, predictions for the device seem overly optimistic.

Most of the speculation stems from a single Citigroup analyst, Mark Mahaney, who also projects Kindle sales to reach
Mahaney speculates Amazon sold 500,000 Kindles last year, based on a filing by Sprint, Amazon’s cellular wireless partner for the device. Kindle 2.0 is expected to have improved page-turning functionality, but still no touch screen or color imaging.

Despite that—really, they can’t do color?—Mahaney estimates substantial adoption rates matching or exceeding the adoption rate in the first years following the iPod’s introduction. He also assumes owners will buy an average of a book per month.

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