Not too long ago, there was a lot of hubbub about a possible Yahoo-Facebook deal (which never happened). There were also a lot of questions about how Yahoo perceived the social networking site. A leaked "Ad Revenue Assumptions" sheet has given a glimpse into the company's thought process; it also turns out that the buyout plan was named "Project Fraternity" - draw your own conclusions.
Michael Arrington broke the news, and he noted, "These documents are now a couple of months old, and both Yahoo and Facebook may have changed their views on a possible deal substantially in that time." Still, there appear to be several interesting assumptions in play. Arrington politely observed that "these revenue projections are based on robust user growth. By 2010, Yahoo assumes Facebook would hit 48 million users, out of a total combined highschool and young adult population of 83 million." That would represent a market penetration of about 60%, which seems terribly optimistic when compared to the site's 2005 numbers (6.2 million registered users and 8% market penetration).
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