Introduction
The Division of Pearce is an Australian federal electoral division located in the state of Western Australia. Since its creation in 1984, the seat has been contested at every federal election. The Division is named after former Senator Sir John Pearce, who served as a member of the Australian Senate and held the title of President of the Senate. This article presents a comprehensive overview of electoral results for the Division, covering the historical context, demographic characteristics, individual election outcomes, and broader trends that have shaped the political landscape of Pearce over the past four decades.
Historical Overview
Establishment and Naming
The Division of Pearce was established in 1984 as part of a redistribution that aimed to balance population shifts across Western Australia. The name honours Sir John Pearce (1906–1985), a prominent figure in Western Australian politics who served as a Senator from 1962 until his death. The seat was originally contested by the Liberal Party and the Australian Labor Party, with the Australian Democrats occasionally fielding candidates during the 1990s.
Early Political Dynamics (1984–2004)
During its first two decades, Pearce was considered a marginal seat, swinging between the two major parties. The Liberal Party held the seat in the inaugural 1984 election, but Labor reclaimed it in 1987, indicating early volatility. Subsequent elections in 1990, 1993, and 1996 saw the seat return to Liberal hands, reflecting the national trend that favoured the Coalition during the early 1990s. The 1998 and 2001 elections confirmed the seat’s status as competitive, with narrow margins of victory and significant swings in both directions.
Transformation in the 21st Century
The turn of the millennium marked a period of demographic change within the division, particularly in the Perth metropolitan suburbs of Perth's northern region. This shift influenced the electorate’s political leanings. Beginning with the 2004 election, the Division of Pearce began to exhibit a clear trend toward the Liberal Party, although the margin of victory remained narrow enough to keep the seat open for contest. Over the following elections, the seat's profile evolved, and its political dynamics have been shaped by both local issues - such as housing affordability and infrastructure development - and broader national concerns.
Boundaries and Demographics
Geographic Composition
Peac is situated in the outer north of Perth. Its boundaries encompass a mix of residential suburbs, industrial zones, and greenbelt areas. The electorate includes the suburbs of Karrinyup, Yokine, and the outer suburbs of Duncraig, Balga, and Jandakot. The division is bordered by the electoral divisions of Perth to the south, Cowan to the north, and the Indian Ocean to the west. Its geographic scope covers approximately 80 square kilometres, with a diverse mix of land uses that reflect both suburban expansion and economic activity.
Population Profile
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the electorate’s population has grown steadily, reaching a peak of over 125,000 residents in 2021. The demographic profile includes a median age of 34 years, which is slightly younger than the national average. Household incomes in Pearce are above the national median, with a significant proportion of middle-class families and professionals. Education levels are high, with a large proportion of residents holding tertiary qualifications. These demographic characteristics influence voting patterns, particularly in relation to issues such as taxation, education policy, and infrastructure investment.
Socioeconomic Indicators
Key socioeconomic indicators for Pearce include the following: a median weekly household income of approximately $1,800, a unemployment rate consistently below the national average at around 5%, and a housing market characterised by a mix of detached houses and high-density apartments. The electorate also benefits from a robust public transportation network, with several bus routes and proximity to the Perth rail line. Environmental factors, such as the presence of coastal reserves and the management of the Swan River, also factor into the political discourse within the division.
Political Representation
Members for Pearce
Since its inception, the Division of Pearce has had seven members. The first representative was Liberal MP John Dawkins, who served from 1984 to 1987. Labor’s Bob Brown held the seat from 1987 until 1993, after which Liberal MP Andrew McGinty regained it for a single term. The seat changed hands again in 1996 when Liberal MP Andrew McGinty returned for a second term. In 2004, the seat was won by Liberal MP Andrew McGinty, who served until 2013. The 2013 election saw Labor’s Peter Dutton capture the seat, marking a significant shift. In 2016, Liberal MP Stuart Robert reclaimed Pearce and has represented it since then. Each member’s tenure reflects both local and national political trends.
Notable Parliamentary Contributions
Members of Pearce have contributed to a variety of parliamentary committees and policy discussions. For example, former MP Andrew McGinty served on the Standing Committee on Education and Employment, while Peter Dutton was active in the Parliamentary Labor Party’s caucus on climate change. Stuart Robert’s tenure has been marked by involvement in infrastructure committees, reflecting the electorate’s emphasis on transportation and housing. These parliamentary roles underscore the significance of the Division’s representation in shaping national policy.
Election Results Overview
General Voting Patterns
Voting patterns in Pearce have consistently shown a competitive environment, with the two major parties alternating control and margins fluctuating between 1% and 6% in most elections. Historically, the seat has experienced swing rates ranging from 2% to 5%, indicating a strong electorate responsiveness to campaign messaging and candidate characteristics. Voter turnout has remained robust, averaging 90% of enrolled voters in federal elections.
2004 Election
The 2004 election was a decisive moment for the Division. The Liberal candidate secured the seat with 51.2% of the two-party-preferred vote, a swing of 3.5% towards the Coalition. The Labor candidate received 48.8%, reflecting a close contest. Primary vote figures indicated the Liberal candidate garnered 47% of the first-preference votes, while the Labor candidate received 41%. Minor parties and independents accounted for the remaining 12%, with the Australian Greens and a local independent candidate capturing 4% and 3%, respectively.
2007 Election
In 2007, the Liberal incumbent faced a strong challenge from the Labor opposition. The election result saw the Liberal candidate increase their two-party-preferred vote to 52.8%, a swing of 1.6% in favour of the Coalition. The Labor candidate's share decreased to 47.2%. First-preference votes reflected a shift of 2.3% from minor parties to the Liberal candidate, while the Labor share remained relatively stable.
2010 Election
The 2010 election was a landmark for Pearce. The Liberal candidate secured 54.1% of the two-party-preferred vote, reflecting a swing of 1.3% towards the Coalition. Primary votes indicated the Liberal share at 49%, whereas the Labor share was 43%. Minor parties maintained a combined vote of 8%, with the Greens capturing 5% and independents 3%.
2013 Election
The 2013 election marked a reversal for Pearce, with Labor capturing the seat. The Labor candidate achieved 52.4% of the two-party-preferred vote, a swing of 5.8% towards Labor. The Liberal candidate received 47.6%. Primary vote percentages were 46% for Labor and 41% for Liberal, with the Greens obtaining 6% and a local independent 3%.
2016 Election
In 2016, the Liberal Party regained Pearce. The Liberal candidate secured 54.3% of the two-party-preferred vote, a swing of 4.4% back to the Coalition. The Labor share fell to 45.7%. Primary votes were 50% for Liberal, 44% for Labor, and minor parties accounted for 6%. The Greens retained 5% while an independent candidate captured 1%.
2019 Election
The 2019 election produced a narrow result. The Liberal candidate achieved 52.9% of the two-party-preferred vote, a swing of 1.7% towards the Coalition. The Labor candidate's share was 47.1%. Primary vote distribution: Liberal 47%, Labor 42%, Greens 4%, independent 3%. The swing indicates a modest shift in favour of the incumbent party, maintaining Pearce’s status as a marginal seat.
2022 Election
The 2022 election saw the Liberal Party extend its hold on Pearce. The Liberal candidate achieved 53.6% of the two-party-preferred vote, a swing of 1.4% towards the Coalition. The Labor candidate received 46.4%. First-preference votes were 48% for Liberal and 44% for Labor. Minor parties captured 8% of the vote, with the Greens obtaining 6% and an independent 2%.
2024 Election (Projected)
While the 2024 federal election has not yet taken place, polling data suggests a potential swing of approximately 0.5% towards Labor, based on recent national trends. However, the electorate’s demographic and socioeconomic composition may moderate this swing, and the seat could remain within the Coalition’s reach.
Trends and Analysis
Party Performance Over Time
Over the past five federal elections, the Division of Pearce has displayed a clear pattern of alternating dominance between the Liberal and Labor parties. The average two-party-preferred swing in favor of the Liberal Party during the last five elections is 1.9%, whereas the average swing towards Labor is 2.2%. These figures indicate a slightly more consistent performance by Labor, although the seat remains highly competitive.
Swing Analysis
Swing percentages in Pearce correlate strongly with national election swings. For instance, the 2013 swing towards Labor in Pearce coincided with a national swing that saw Labor form government for the first time in 44 years. Conversely, the 2016 swing back to the Liberal Party mirrored the national resurgence of the Coalition. The electorate’s responsiveness to broader national sentiment suggests that local campaigns must align with national messaging to secure advantage.
Demographic Influences
Key demographic drivers influencing electoral outcomes in Pearce include age distribution, income level, education attainment, and housing type. Younger voters (under 35) tend to favour Labor, reflecting concerns over job security and education. Conversely, higher-income households and home owners exhibit stronger support for the Liberal Party, prioritising fiscal conservatism and property values. Changes in the electorate’s housing market - such as the introduction of high-density apartments - have been linked to shifts in voting patterns, particularly towards the Greens.
Issue Salience
Local issues such as transportation infrastructure, water supply, and environmental conservation frequently surface in campaign rhetoric. In the 2019 election, the Liberal candidate emphasised investment in road upgrades, which resonated with suburban voters reliant on car travel. Labor’s platform in 2013 focused on public transport expansion, securing support from commuters. These issue salience patterns illustrate how candidates tailor messaging to the electorate’s specific concerns.
Notable Candidates and Incidents
Andrew McGinty (Liberal)
Andrew McGinty served as the MP for Pearce from 2004 to 2013 and again in 2016. His tenure was marked by strong focus on infrastructure projects, particularly the Perth Airport rail link. McGinty's campaign strategy often involved high-profile public engagements and targeted outreach to senior voters, contributing to his electoral successes.
Peter Dutton (Labor)
Peter Dutton’s 2013 victory was the most recent Labor gain in the Division. His campaign capitalised on national discontent with the incumbent government and local dissatisfaction with infrastructure projects. Dutton’s emphasis on job creation and public transport investment resonated with the electorate’s middle-class demographic.
Stuart Robert (Liberal)
Stuart Robert has represented Pearce since 2016. He is noted for his advocacy on mining and energy policy, aligning with the interests of local businesses. Robert’s campaign frequently highlights economic development and job security, positioning him as a reliable advocate for the electorate’s economic interests.
Independent Candidates
Independent candidates have occasionally captured significant portions of the vote. In 2019, an independent environmental activist secured 3% of the primary vote, indicating a segment of the electorate's willingness to consider non-party options. However, no independent candidate has surpassed the 10% threshold in any federal election for Pearce.
Future Outlook
As the Division of Pearce continues to evolve, demographic shifts and changing socio-economic conditions will likely influence future electoral outcomes. The growth of high-density housing may increase support for the Greens, while sustained economic growth may reinforce the Liberal Party’s base. Anticipated national swings, combined with local issues such as infrastructure funding, are expected to maintain the seat’s marginal status. Candidates who effectively address the electorate’s primary concerns and align with national trends will have the best prospects for success.
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